Report of activity

Abstract of the 229th meeting of CCEP

  The 229th meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the web confrence of GSI on Nov. 26, 2020. Firstly, the nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity and the crustal deformaitons were reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject "Future vision for monitoring of crustal activity around Japan". Finally, the purport of next intensive discussion subject "Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 7" was explained.

  • Deliberation about crusutal activity monitoring.
  • 1.1 General crustal activities
    (1) Seismic activities of Japan
          p5 (JMA)
    (2) Activities of shallow and very-low-frequency earthquakes around Japan
          p6 (NIED)
    (3) Strain changes in Japanese Islands
          p7 (GSI)

    1.2 Stuck state of plate boundary and its change
    (1) Suruga trough, Nankai trough and Nansei islands trench
          pp8-10 (NIED)
          pp11, p12 , p13(GSI)

    1.3 Others
    (1) Earthquake in the Reihoku region of Fukui Prefecture
          p14 (JMA)

  • Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 7
  •       p16-17 Convener: Shinji TODA (IRIDeS)

    -Earthquake forecasting by using the seismic intensity database of Japan Meteorological Agency and evaluation of the forecasts for 2015-2020.
          p19-20 Naoji KOIZUMI (The University of Shiga Prefecture)
    -A review of earthquake forecast modeling based on b-value
          p21 Kazuyoshi NANJO (University of Shizuoka)
    -Short-, medium-, long-term and background-rate forecasts based on a hierarchical space-time ETAS model: Towards the development of automated forecasts
          p22 Yoshihiko OGATA (ISM)
    -On possible mechanisms of short-term precursors while admitting hierarchical asperities.
          p23 Masao NAKATANI (ERI)