Abstract of the 217th meeting of CCEP

  The 217th meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the Kanto Regional Survey Department of the GSI on Nov 22, 2017. Firstly, nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity and the crustal deformaitons were reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject "Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 4". Finally, the purport of next intensive discussion subject "Tasks seen through 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes" was explained.

• Deliberation about crusutal activity monitoring.

1.General crusutal activities
（1）Seismic activities of Japan.
     p3 (JMA)
（2）Activity of shallow very low frequency earthquakes around Japan.
     p4 (NIED)
（3）Strain changes in the Japanese Islands.
     p5 (GSI)

1.2 The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake.
     pp6-7 (GSI)
     p8 (JCG)
1.3 The coupling state and change on the plate boundary
（1)Suruga trough, Nankai trough and Nansei shoto trench.
     pp9-10 (GSI)
     p11 (NIED)

1.4 Others.
（1)Earthquake in southern inland Akita Prefecture.
     p12 (JMA)
（2)Earthquakes in northern Ibaraki Prefecture.
     p13 (JMA)
（3)Earthquake in Kagoshima Bay.
     p14 (JMA)
（4)Earthquake of neighborhood of Iran Iraq border.
     pp15-16 (GSI)


• Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 4 p19 (Convener: Takane Hori, JAMSTEC)

     Identification performance of the foreshock probability evaluation model based on magnitude and the information between the space-time p21 (Shunichi Nomura,Yoshihiko Ogata, ISM)
     Predictive model of the earthquake magnitude p22 (Yoshihiko Ogata, ISM)
     Deviation from G-R rule to appear before a main shock and Suggestion of the earthquake prediction model based on the characteristic p23 (Fuyuki Hirose, MRI-JMA)
     Model of all global major earthquake outbreak predictions based on the b level p24 (Kazuyoshi Nanjo, University of Shizuoka)
     Long term seismic quiescence preceded earthquakes more than Mw8.0 p25 (Kei Katsumata, Hokkaido Univ.)
     Probability of the major earthquake outbreak prospective from a law learned by experience : Review of rate p26 (Masao Nakatani, Tokyo Univ.)

• Purport of next intensive discussion subject "Tasks seen through 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes ".

     p27 (Convener: Shinji Toda, Tohoku Univ.)

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