Abstract of the 232nd meeting of CCEP

  The 232nd meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the web confrence of GSI on Aug. 27, 2021. Firstly, the nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity and the crustal deformaitons were reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject "Physical models of preparation and generation processes of megathrust earthquakes in subduction zone aiming for their forecast". Finally, the purport of next intensive discussion subject "Trials of experimental forecasts of crustal deformation and seismicity #8: Moving towards the prospective tests" was explained.

※The materials on this site are written in Japanese.

• Deliberation about crusutal activity monitoring.

1.1 General crustal activities
(1) Seismic activities of Japan.
      p2 (JMA)
(2) Activities of shallow and very-low-frequency earthquakes around Japan.
      p3-4 (NIED)
(3) Strain changes in Japanese Islands.
      p5 (GSI)

1.2 Stuck state of plate boundary and its change.
(1) Suruga trough, Nankai trough and Nansei islands trench.
      p6-8 (NIED)
      pp9 (JAMSTEC)
      p10, p11, p12 (GSI)

1.3 Others
(1) Earthquake in off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture.(Mar. 20)
      pp13 (JMA)
      pp14-16, p17 (GSI)
(2) Earthquake in off the coast of Ibaraki Prefecture.(Aug. 4)
      pp18 (JMA)
(3) Seismic activity in the Noto Peninsula of Ishikawa Prefecture.
      p19 (JMA)
      pp20-21 (GSI)
(4) Seismic activity in the waters near Yonagunijima.
      p22 (GSI)



• Intensive discussion "Physical models of preparation and generation processes of megathrust earthquakes in subduction zone aiming for their forecast".

      p25 Convener: Takamine HORI (JAMASTEC, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

-A new method to generate rupture scenarios for megathrust earthquakes taking the energy balance into account
      p26 Akemi NODA (MRI, Meteorological Research Institute)
-Numerical modeling of slow slip events in the earthquake preparation process around the Nankai region, based on the recent advance in observational studies
      p27 Takanori MATSUZAWA (NIED, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)
-Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction-Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealan
      p28 Takamine HORI (JAMASTEC, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) and Yoshihiro KANEKO (Kyoto University)

• Purport of next intensive discussion subject "Trials of experimental forecasts of crustal deformation and seismicity #8: Moving towards the prospective tests".

      pp29-31 Convener: Shinji Toda (Tohoku University)

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