Abstract of the 241th meeting of CCEP

The 241th meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the Kanto Regional Survey Department of the GSI on November 30, 2023. And the meeting was onsite and online confference. Firstly, the nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity and the crustal deformations and prediction of crustal activity were reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject "Trials of experimental forecasts of crustal deformation and seismicity #9: Validation of intermediate-term seismicity forecasts" was explained. Finally, the purport of next intensive discussion subject "On the relationship between earthquake and volcanic activity " was explained.
※The materials on this site are written in Japanese.

• Deliberation about crustal activity monitoring.

1.1 General crustal activities
(1) Seismic activities of Japan.
p2 (JMA)
(2) Strain changes in Japanese Islands.
p3 (GSI)





1.2 State of interplate coupling and its change.
(1)Japan trench,Chishima trench
p4 (JMA)
p5 (JMA)
p6 (NIED)
(2)Nankai trough and Nansei islands trench.
p7 (NIED)
p8 (NIED)
p9(GSI)
p10(GSI)





1.3 Others
(1) Earthquake off the southeast coast of Etorofu Island (September 29, M6.2)
p11 (JMA)
(2) Seismic activity in the Noto area, Ishikawa Prefecture (Largest Earthquake: May 5, M6.5)
p12 (JMA)
p13-17 (GSI)
(3)Seismic activity near the Tokara Islands (near Kodakarajima Island) (Largest Earthquake:September 11, M5.3)
p18-20 (JMA)
p21 (GSI)
p22 (ISM)
(4) Earthquake off the northwest coast of Miyakojima (September 18, M6.5)
p23 (JMA)
(5) Earthquake near Miyakojima (October 16, M6.0)
p24 (JMA)
(6) Earthquake near Torishima (September 19, M6.1)
p25 (JMA)
(7) Seismic activity in the sea near Torishima (Largest Earthquake: October 5 ,M6.5)
p26-27 (JMA)
p22 (ISM)
(8) Earthquake in Morocco (September 9, Mw6.8)
p28 (JMA)
p29-30 (GSI)
(9) Earthquake in northwestern Afghanistan (Largest Earthquakes: October 7, 11, 15 Mw6.3)
p31 (JMA)






1.4 Prediction of crustal activity
Earthquake forecasting method by supposing swarm-like activity to be possible foreshocks (7): its performance for recent seismicity data
p33 (MRI)




• Intensive discussion - Examination of the "Trials of experimental forecasts of crustal deformation and seismicity #9: Validation of intermediate-term seismicity forecasts".

p35-37 Convener：Shinji Toda(Tohoku University),Joint Convener：Takane Hori(JAMSTEC)

-On the relative quiescence of seismicity off the Eastern part of Hokkaido: a decade after its detection
p39 Ritsuko Matsu'ura (Association For The Development Of Earthquake Prediction)




-Testing the seismic quiescence hypothesis through retrospective trials –
p40 Kei Katsumata (Hokkaido University)




-Spatial and temporal changes in the Gutenberg-Richter size-frequency distribution (b value) of earthquakes off the coast of Hokkaido and Tohoku districts
p41 Kazuyoshi Nanjo (University of Shizuoka)




-The activity of repeating earthquakes along the Japan trench and its characteristics of repetition
p42 Naoki Uchida (The University of Tokyo)




-Interpretation of the course of the Noto Peninsula earthquake swarm and some anomalous activities before and after major earthquakes
p43-44 Takao Kumazawa ,Yoshihiko Ogata(The Institute of Statical Mathmatics)

• Purport of next intensive discussion "Trials of experimental forecasts of crustal deformation and seismicity #9: Validation of intermediate-term seismicity forecasts".

p45 Convener：Koshun Yamaoka(Nagoya University)

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