Abstract of the 237th meeting of CCEP

  The 237th meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the Kanto Regional Survey Department of the GSI on November 25, 2022. And the meeting was onsite and online confference. Firstly, the nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity and the crustal deformations and prediction of crustal activity were reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject "Long-term forecast of crustal earthquakes" was explained. Finally, the purport of next intensive discussion subject "Evolution of Seismology with Artificial Intelligence" was explained.

※The materials on this site are written in Japanese.

• Deliberation about crustal activity monitoring.

1.1 General crustal activities
(1) Seismic activities of Japan.
      p2 (JMA)
(2) Activities of shallow and very-low-frequency earthquakes around Japan.
      p3 (NIED)
(3) Strain changes in Japanese Islands.
      p4 (GSI)

1.2 State of interplate coupling and its change.
(1)Earthquake in southern of Ibaraki Prefecture.(Nov. 9)
      p5 (JMA)
(2)Suruga trough, Nankai trough and Nansei islands trench.
      pp6-8 (NIED)
      p9, p10 p11 (GSI),
(3)Earthquake off the eastern coast of Osumi Peninsula.(Oct. 2)
      p12 (JMA)

1.3 Others
(1) Earthquake in off the coast of Ibaraki Prefecture.(Oct. 11)
      p13 (JMA)
(2) Seismic activity in Noto region, Ishikawa Prefecture.
      p14 (JMA)
      pp15-19 (GSI)
      p20 (ISM)
(3) Seismic activity in off the coast of northwest Okinawa main island.
      p21 (JMA)
      p22 (GSI)
(4) Earthquake in Taiwan.
      pp23-24 (JMA)

1.4 prediction of crustal activity
(1) The current and future of crustal activity in the Noto Peninsula
      pp26-27 Takuya Nishimura (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)



• Intensive discussion "Long-term forecast of crustal earthquakes".

      p29 Takuya Nishimura (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)

-Unsolved problems in evaluating long-term activities of active faults
      p31 Tatsuya Ishiyama (ERI)
-Long-term forecast of crustal earthquakes in Japan using geodetic data
      p32 Takuya Nishimura (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)
-Prediction and validation of long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space-time ETAS models and space-time Poisson process models
      p33 Yoshihiko Ogata (ISM)
-Long-term forecasting of inland earthquakes considering seismic history and stress transfer       p34 shinji Toda (International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University)

• Evolution of Seismology with Artificial Intelligence.

p35 Convener：Naoshi Hirata (The University of Tokyo)
　　　　　　　　　　　Hiromichi Nagao (ERI, Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)

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