Abstract of the 225th meeting of CCEP

  The 225th meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the Kanto Regional Survey Department of the GSI on Nov. 22, 2019. Firstly, nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity and the crustal deformaitons were reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject "Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 6". Finally, the purport of next intensive discussion subject "Inland large earthquakes without apparent surface fault traces" was explained.

• Deliberation about crusutal activity monitoring.

1.General crustal activities
（1）Seismic activities of Japan.
      　p3 (JMA)
（2）Activity of shallow very low frequency earthquakes around Japan.
      　p4 (NIED)
（3）Strain changes in the Japanese Islands.
      　p5 (GSI)

1.2 Stuck state of plate boundary and its change.
（1)Suruga trough, Nankai trough and Nansei shoto trench.
      　pp6-9 (GSI)
      　pp10-13 (GSI)

1.3 Others.
（1)Earthquake in off the coast of Fukushima Pref. (Aug. 4, 2019 M6.4)
      　p14 (JMA)


• Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 6"

      　pp16-17,25 Convener: Yoshihiko OGATA（The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
      Earthquake forecasting method by supposing swarm-like activity to be possible foreshocks(5):
      its performance for recent seismicity data and comparison with the ETAS model
      　p18 Keiji MAEDA (MRI,JMA)
      Foreshock discrimination models for various prediction schemes and evaluation of their predictive performance
      　p19 Syunichi NOMURA（The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
      Real-time aftershock forecasting in Japan
      　p20 Takahiro OMI (Kyoto University)
      On a forecast of maximum amplitudes due to aftershocks using continuous seismograms
      　p21 Kaoru SAWAZAKI (NIED)
      Semi-realtime monitoring of earthquake swarm activities in subduction zones around Japan
      　pp22-23 Tomoaki NISHIKAWA (Disaster Prevention Research Institute)
      Detection of swarm activities by non-stationary ETAS model and their predictability based on geodetic data
      　p24 Takao KUMAZAWA (Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)
      Short- and medium-term forecasts using hierarchical spatiotemporal ETAS model
      　p25 Yoshihiko OGATA（The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

• Purport of next intensive discussion subject "Inland large earthquakes without apparent surface fault traces".

      　p26 Convener: Hiroaki TAKAHASHI（Hokkaido Univ.)

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