Abstract of the 233rd meeting of CCEP

  The 233rd meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the web confrence of GSI on Nov. 26, 2021. Firstly, the nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity and the crustal deformaitons were reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject "Trials of experimental forecasts of crustal deformation and seismicity #8: Moving towards the prospective testst". Finally, the purport of next intensive discussion subject "Current understanding of slow earthquakes" was explained.

※The materials on this site are written in Japanese.

• Deliberation about crusutal activity monitoring.

1.1 General crustal activities
(1) Seismic activities of Japan.
      p2 (JMA)
(2) Activities of shallow and very-low-frequency earthquakes around Japan.
      p3 (NIED)
(3) Strain changes in Japanese Islands.
      p4 (GSI)

1.2 Stuck state of plate boundary and its change.
(1) Suruga trough, Nankai trough and Nansei islands trench.
      p5 (NIED)
      p6, p7, p8, p9(GSI)

1.3 Others
(1) Earthquake in off the coast of Iwate Prefecture.(Oct. 6)
      p10 (JMA)
(2) Earthquake in northwestern Chiba prefecture.(Oct. 7)
      p11-12 (JMA)
(3) Seismic activity in Noto region, Ishikawa Prefecture.
      p13 (JMA)
      p14-15 (GSI)
      p16 (ISM)
(4) Earthquake off the southern coast of Wakayama Prefecture.
      p17 (JMA)
(5) Earthquake in the Haiti.
      p18-19 (JMA)



• Intensive discussion "Trials of experimental forecasts of crustal deformation and seismicity #8: Moving towards the prospective tests".

      p22-24 Convener: Shinji TODA (Tohoku University) and Takamine HORI (JAMASTEC, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

-Experimental forecast of postseismic deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake
      p25 Hiroshi MUNEKANE (Geospatial Information Authority of Japan)
-Earthquake forecasting by using the seismic intensity database of Japan Meteorological Agency and evaluation of the forecasts for 2015-2021
      p26-27 Naotsugu KOIZUMI (University of Shiga Prefecture)
-Earthquake forecasting method by supposing swarm-like activity to be possible foreshocks (6): summary so far and future issues
      p28 Kenji MAEDA (Meteorological Research Institute)
-Prediction and validation of short- and medium-term earthquake probabilities using a hierarchical space-time ETAS models,etc
      p29 Yoshihiko OGATA (Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
-Seismic activities and seismotectonics in the northern Noto Peninsula
      p30 Yoshihiro HIRAMATSU (Kanazawa University)

• Purport of next intensive discussion subject "Current understanding of slow earthquakes".

      p31 Convener: Kazushige OBARA (Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)

---