Abstract of the 221st meeting of CCEP

  The 221st meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the Kanto Regional Survey Department of the GSI on Nov 30, 2018. Firstly, nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity and the crustal deformaitons were reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject "Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 5". Finally, the purport of next intensive discussion subject "Crust activity in the Nansei shoto area" was explained.

• Deliberation about crusutal activity monitoring.

1.General crustal activities
（1）Seismic activities of Japan.
     p3 (JMA)
（2）Activity of shallow very low frequency earthquakes around Japan.
     p4 (NIED)
（3）Strain changes in the Japanese Islands.
     p5 (GSI)
（4）Seafloor movements observed by seafloor geodetic observations around Japan.
     p6 (JCG)

1.2 The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake.
     pp7-8 (GSI)
     pp9-10 (JCG)

1.3 Stuck state of plate boundary and its change.
（1)Suruga trough, Nankai trough and Nansei shoto trench.
     pp11-13 (JCG)
     pp14-17 (NIED)
     pp18-19 (GSI)
     p20 (GSI)

1.4 Others.
（1)The 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake.(Sep 6)
     pp21-27 (JMA)
     pp28-31 (GSI)
     p32 (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
     p33 (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
（2)Earthquake in Sulawesi Island and Minahassa Peninsula, Indonesia.(Sep 28)
     pp34-35 (JMA)
     pp36-38 (GSI)


• Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 5 pp41-42 Convener: Tetsuo Hashimoto (MRI,JMA)

      Test of probability estimation of occurrences of the repeating earthquakes in Okinawa district
      Earthquake forecasting method by supposing swarm-like activity to be possible foreshocks: its performance for recent seismicity data
     　p43 Tetsuo Hashimoto (MRI,JMA)
      Earthquake Predictability Experiment based on CSEP Project - Trial of forecast experiments in Japan -
     　p44 Tsuruoka Hiroshi (Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)
      Connection between slow earthquake and megathrust earthquake
     　p45 Aitaro Kato (Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)
      Recent crustal deformation in eastern Hokkaido
     　p46 Hiroshi Yarai (GSI)
      Examination of observation data other than relative quiescence of seismicity in east off Hokkaido
     　p47 Hori Takane (JAMASTEC)

• Purport of next intensive discussion subject " Crust activity in the Nansei shoto area ".

     p48 (Convener: Shigeru Nakao, Kagoshima University)

---