Report of activity
Abstract of the 252th meeting of CCEP
The 252th meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) was held at the Kanto Regional Survey Department of the GSI on August 28, 2026. And the meeting was onsite and online confference. Firstly, the nationwide monitoring data of the seismic activity was reported. Secondary, the CCEP members discussed the intensive discussion subject ”The 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake” was explained. * The materials on this site are written in Japanese.
Ⅰ.Monitoring Crustal Deformation
１ General crustal activities
(1) Seismic activities of Japan. Ⅰ,p.2(JMA)
(2) Strain changes in Japanese Islands. Ⅰ,pp.3-4(GSI)
２ Related to the Tohoku Pacific Ocean Earthquake
Ⅰ,pp.5-7(GSI)
３ State of interplate coupling and its change.
(1) Japan trench,Chishima trench.
Ⅰ,p.8(JMA),
Ⅰ,pp.9-14(GSI),
Ⅰ,pp.15-23(JMA),
Ⅰ,pp.24-28(GSI)
(2) Sagami Trough Surroundings / Directly Under the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.
Ⅰ,p.29,Ⅰ,pp.30-35(JMA)
(3) Nankai trough and Nansei islands trench.
Ⅰ,p.36(JMA),
Ⅰ,p.37(NIED),
Ⅰ,p.38-41(GSI)
(4) Others.
Ⅰ,pp.42-43(ISM)
４ Others
(1) Earthquake off the northwest coast of Miyakojima (July 3, M6.5).
Ⅰ,p.44(JMA)
Ⅱ.Intensive discussion
”The 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake”
Ⅱ,pp.2-3 Convener：Shinji Toda (Tohoku Univ.)
-The 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake
Ⅱ,pp.9-15 Shigeki Aoki (JMA)
-The 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake: Crustal Deformation, Fault Modeling, and a Surface-Displacement Discontinuity
Ⅱ,pp.16-25 Hiroshi Munekane(GSI)
-High-frequency energy release from the Kumamoto earthquake on July 28, 2026
Ⅱ,p.26 Takanori Matsuzawa (NIED)
-Geological setting and surface ruptures of the 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake
Ⅱ,p.27 Takashi Ogami (AIST)
-On the Evolution of Aftershock Activity Following the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto Earthquake and the Aftershock Activity of the 2026 M7.1 Kumamoto Earthquake
Ⅱ,pp.28-29 Yoshihiko Ogata (ISM)
-The 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake: Insights from Seismic Activity
Ⅱ,p.30 Satoshi Matsumoto (Kyusyu Univ.)
-Spatiotemporal distribution of b values along the Hinagu fault zone:comparison with the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake
Ⅱ,p.31 Kazuyoshi Nanjo (University of Shizuoka)
-Seismicity Changes Associated with the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake and the 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake
Ⅱ,p.32 Shinji Toda (Tohoku Univ.)
-Surface ruptures of the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake: Displacement distribution and repeated faulting along the 2016 earthquake ruptures
Ⅱ,p.33 Yasuhiro Kumahara (Hiroshima Univ.)
-Results of Paleoseismic Investigations along the Hinagu Fault Zone and Their Implications for the 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake
Ⅱ,p.34 Yukari Miyashita (AIST)
-Strong Ground Motion Estimation of the Hinagu Fault Zone by the Comprehensive Research Project for the Major Active Faults related to The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, and the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake
Ⅱ,p.35 Tomotaka Iwata (Professor Emeritus, Kyoto Univ.)
Purport of next intensive discussion
Eighty Years After the 1946 Showa Nankai Earthquake: Advances in Research and Observations Toward the Next Nankai Trough Earthquake
Ⅲ.Report of the Operations Working Group
In the Operational Review Subcommittee, following the occurrence of the 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake, it was decided that the 252nd Priority Review Topic would be designated as the "2026 Kumamoto Earthquake," and that the previously scheduled Priority Review Topics for subsequent sessions would be postponed accordingly.
Ⅲ Operations Working Group